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FACT PROVENANCE
Every number we publish carries its source and its date — visible, on the card, every time.
Today's facts · 15 October 2026
CoreWeave's cost of AI-infrastructure debt widened sharply in five months — its August 2026 delayed-draw term loan priced at SOFR plus 5.50%, versus SOFR plus 2.25% on its $8.5 billion March 2026 facility Loan margin: SOFR+2.25% to SOFR+5.50%
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The share of active ChatGPT users messaging it on 21 or more days a month rose from 2.6% in December 2023 to 10.5% in December 2025, per Epoch AI's analysis of YouGov panel data on real usage histories 2.6% to 10.5% of users
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Edition of 15 October 2026
CoreWeave's cost of AI-infrastructure debt widened sharply in five months — its August 2026 delayed-draw term loan priced at SOFR plus 5.50%, versus SOFR plus 2.25% on its $8.5 billion March 2026 facility Loan margin: SOFR+2.25% to SOFR+5.50%
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THE AI VALUE CHAIN
Every layer of the AI build-out, from the power grid to the software that has to pay for it all.
Compute is now bounded by electricity and heat, not by demand for chips. Grid interconnects, turbines, transformers and liquid cooling decide how fast the boom can physically go.
What to watch
Interconnection queues, power purchase deals, cooling attach rates.
The machines that make the machines. Lithography and deposition tools gate every new fab, with lead times measured in years.
What to watch
Equipment bookings, export-control changes, fab build announcements.
Advanced logic and high-bandwidth memory are the scarcest inputs in the chain. Advanced packaging capacity has repeatedly been the binding constraint on accelerator supply.
What to watch
Advanced packaging capacity, HBM sold-out announcements, node transitions.
GPUs and custom silicon convert capital into compute. This layer captures the largest share of AI spending — and sets the price of intelligence.
What to watch
Data-center revenue, backlog, custom-silicon share shift, gross margin.
Training runs span tens of thousands of accelerators, so the fabric between them is as decisive as the silicon itself. Optics scale with cluster size, not with chip count.
What to watch
Switch port shipments, optical transceiver upgrade cycles.
Where the compute physically lives. Pre-leasing has moved years ahead of construction, turning shells and land banks into strategic assets.
What to watch
Pre-leasing rates, megawatts under construction, vacancy.
Four balance sheets fund most of the boom. Their capex guidance is the single most important number in the entire chain — it is everyone else's revenue.
What to watch
Capex guidance revisions, cloud backlog, depreciation schedules.
Where capital becomes capability. Mostly private, so public-market exposure runs through their partners and investors — which is exactly where mispricing hides.
What to watch
Benchmark leadership, cost per token, funding rounds, partner economics.
The layer that has to justify everything below it. If AI revenue does not show up here, the capex cycle above eventually resets.
What to watch
Seat expansion, AI attach rates, pricing power, net revenue retention.
AI EXPOSURE
DISCLOSED FIGURES ONLY · 5 OCTOBER 2026We publish the AI share of revenue only where the company itself reports one — and say so plainly where it does not.
Nvidia
Accelerators
Data Center segment revenue of $193.74bn on $215.94bn total. FY2026, ended 25 January 2026.
Data Center is not a pure AI line — it includes networking and non-AI accelerated computing — but it is the closest figure Nvidia reports.
Nvidia FY2026 Form 10-K ↗Fiscal year ended 2026-01-25. Capex intensity measures spending on AI, not selling into it — it runs high for hyperscalers and low for the companies supplying them.
The purest expression of the trade, and the company with the least anywhere to hide if demand turns.
Only 7 of these 27 companies tell you what share of their revenue is AI. That silence is itself the finding: the further you get from the silicon, the less anyone is willing to put a number on it.
AI revenue shares are the companies' own disclosures, linked on each card. Revenue, R&D and capex come from SEC XBRL filing data. Criticality and moat are our editorial judgement and are labelled as such — they are not folded into any number. Nothing here is a rating or investment advice; see the methodology.
Every figure above, plus the cash flows, margins and valuation behind it. Nvidia's card is open to everyone; the rest are Insider.
COMPANY AI EXPOSURE CARD
NVDA · Accelerators · FY2026, ended 25 January 2026
Billions of dollars per fiscal year, with revenue growth under each. Levels, not growth rates: one year off a small base makes a growth chart unreadable.
Nvidia FY2026 Form 10-K, via SEC XBRL
The company's own market split, latest fiscal year against the one before. Bars are scaled to the largest line, not to total revenue.
Revenue by customer billing location. Nvidia discloses that 76% of the revenue billed to Taiwan is attributable to end customers based in the United States and Europe — billing location is not the end customer's location.
Nvidia FY2026 Form 10-K, revenue by region ↗Our judgement, kept out of every measured figure.
Strengths — more is better
Risks — more is worse
Two direct customers each accounted for 22% and 14% of Compute & Networking revenue in FY2026 — up from 12% and 11% a year earlier. Nvidia names neither. That segment is most of the company, so this is close to company-wide concentration, though it is not reported as such.
The purest expression of the trade, and the company with the least anywhere to hide if demand turns.
The growth today's quote already implies, on our other assumptions.
No live quote available, so this is left blank rather than computed from a stale price.
Low, base and high cases. A range, never a target.
Base case $165
Free cash flow grew 59% in FY2026. All three cases assume that decelerates sharply, because five more years at anything close to the recent rate is not a forecast anyone can defend. Net cash is cash and equivalents less total debt; marketable securities are excluded rather than estimated, which makes the band conservative.
26 more companies have a card of their own. Every one is Insider-only.
Company of the week
Free to read this week
PLTR · Applications
Revenue nearly doubled from a year earlier, to $1.935 billion in the quarter, on software it sells as an AI platform; the filings carry no AI revenue line and split the money only by who pays — with twenty customers about 40% of the past year's revenue.
AllFactsAI holds a position in Palantir (PLTR), as at 21 September 2026.
THE AI STOCK SCREENER
MARKET CLOSED · 15:06 UTCPRICES 15-MIN DELAYED · EODHD₩ RESTATED AT 1,341.14/$ · 14 Oct72 listed companies, each placed in the layer of the AI value chain where its AI revenue is actually recognised. Sort by any column; a figure we do not have prints as a dash, never as a zero.
S&P 500
7,718.94
-1.11%
NASDAQ
26,692.87
-1.88%
DOW
51,621.48
-0.09%
RUSSELL 2000
IWM ETF
$271.42
-1.91%
VIX
16.87
+10.48%
Compare stocks
| # | 30-Day | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia | Accelerators | $224.07 | -1.95% | -6.81% | +4.30% | +6.82% | $5.40T | $25.76M | 28.3 | $164.79 – $239.24 | |
| 2 | Apple | Hyperscalers | $344.71 | +1.01% | +1.87% | +3.51% | +3.00% | $5.03T | $11.78M | 39.6 | $246.03 – $342.96 | |
| 3 | Alphabet | Hyperscalers | $354.84 | +0.30% | -0.82% | +0.77% | -1.86% | $4.34T* | $7.43M | 17.8 | $249.81 – $402.12 | |
| 4 | Microsoft | Hyperscalers | $537.92 | -1.02% | +0.74% | +7.36% | +33.31% | $3.99T | $4.85M | 30.0 | $352.17 – $543.45 | |
| 5 | Amazon | Hyperscalers | $256.38 | -0.85% | -2.25% | +2.28% | +1.68% | $2.77T | $7.58M | 20.6 | $198.79 – $284.02 | |
| 6 | TSMC | Foundry & Memory | $437.23 | -1.77% | -8.94% | +4.21% | +5.23% | $2.27T | $3.66M | — | $272.50 – $485.80 | |
| 7 | Meta Platforms | Hyperscalers | $745.17 | -2.27% | +2.25% | +10.13% | +11.07% | $1.91T* | $5.11M | 28.1 | $524.82 – $777.59 | |
| 8 | Broadcom | Accelerators | $351.13 | -1.73% | -8.04% | +2.24% | -7.36% | $1.68T | $4.69M | 44.8 | $292.39 – $479.90 | |
| 9 | Tesla | Applications | $369.24 | -1.60% | -2.82% | +2.97% | -6.11% | $1.46T | $10.39M | 341.9 | $298.32 – $489.88 | |
| 10 | Micron Technology | Foundry & Memory | $939.35 | -1.45% | -15.97% | -1.44% | +7.16% | $1.06T | $7.44M | 12.6 | $191.72 – $1,213.18 | |
| 11 | AMD | Accelerators | $584.08 | -3.54% | -11.62% | +13.21% | +13.95% | $953.50B | $5.89M | 150.1 | $190.95 – $649.42 | |
| 12 | SpaceX | Model Labs | $154.20 | -1.49% | -9.21% | +6.04% | +16.06% | $752.34B* | $26.19M | — | $108.27 – $211.39 | |
| 13 | ASML Holding | Semi Equipment | $1,723.07 | +0.31% | -8.59% | +3.68% | -7.44% | $664.10B | $1.11M | — | $961.95 – $1,986.87 | |
| 14 | Intel | Foundry & Memory | $100.56 | -2.19% | -13.26% | +1.01% | +1.18% | $507.21B | $26.17M | — | $33.62 – $140.94 | |
| 15 | Palantir Technologies | Applications | $206.58 | -1.00% | +3.53% | +16.46% | +49.49% | $496.38B* | $6.58M | 178.1 | $107.27 – $209.05 | |
| 16 | Oracle | Hyperscalers | $134.07 | -6.38% | -8.73% | -6.64% | +5.49% | $405.39B | $17.51M | 21.0 | $114.57 – $308.87 | |
| 17 | Lam Research | Semi Equipment | $293.71 | -2.46% | -12.93% | +6.04% | -10.51% | $367.53B | $2.00M | 51.0 | $138.95 – $432.87 | |
| 18 | Applied Materials | Semi Equipment | $457.56 | -1.44% | -14.22% | +6.05% | -20.29% | $363.12B | $1.98M | 39.5 | $219.35 – $722.23 | |
| 19 | Dell Technologies | Data Centers | $524.83 | -8.32% | -12.27% | -6.55% | +29.99% | $335.89B* | $3.40M | 30.5 | $110.54 – $588.40 | |
| 20 | Arm Holdings | Accelerators | $243.25 | -4.75% | -19.15% | -1.58% | -9.16% | $258.83B | $1.71M | 248.2 | $104.55 – $439.46 | |
| 21 | Arista Networks | Networking & Optics | $201.86 | -1.30% | -9.46% | +1.34% | +15.93% | $254.59B | $984,546 | 63.7 | $116.13 – $216.74 | |
| 22 | GE Vernova | Power & Cooling | $940.63 | -6.32% | -5.55% | +6.68% | -9.11% | $250.52B | $959,249 | 27.0 | $546.95 – $1,174.86 | |
| 23 | KLA | Semi Equipment | $183.58 | -0.23% | -9.16% | +6.42% | -18.40% | $239.85B | $2.12M | 50.0 | $108.12 – $301.37 | |
| 24 | Marvell Technology | Accelerators | $256.50 | -4.55% | -13.82% | +10.66% | +30.29% | $224.92B | $5.67M | 84.7 | $73.66 – $316.28 | |
| 25 | Sandisk | Foundry & Memory | $1,433.58 | -3.29% | -17.08% | -8.33% | -0.55% | $209.90B | $2.45M | 19.6 | $140.16 – $2,335.00 |
Market capDERIVED and P/EDERIVED are computed from SEC filings and the current price
AI TRADING BOTS
Some of the companies on our AI-exposure screener also trade 24/7 as tokenized stocks — plus a few AI-narrative tokens with no stock at all.
See the AI bots page →Intelligence against blended price, every lab tagged with the listed company that actually gives you exposure to it.
Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index vs blended $ / 1M tokens
Up and to the left is better
| Model | Lab | Intel. | $ / 1M | Listed proxy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5.5 (Max, Default Fallback)frontier | Anthropic | 57.6 | $8.00 | GOOGL · AMZN |
Intelligence57.6$ / 1M tokens$8.00closedHow you get exposurePrivate. Backed by Google and Amazon; runs on TPU and Trainium.GOOGLAMZN | ||||
| Claude Fable 5.1 (Max, Default Fallback) | Anthropic | 53.4 | $20.00 | GOOGL · AMZN |
| GPT-6 Astra (Max) | OpenAI | 52.7 | $20.00 | MSFT |
| GPT-6.1 Sol (Xhigh)frontier | OpenAI | 51 | $4.00 | MSFT |
| Claude Opus 5 (Xhigh) | Anthropic | 49.7 | $10.00 | GOOGL · AMZN |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 (High, Default Fallback) | Anthropic | 46.8 | $4.00 | GOOGL · AMZN |
| MiMo-V2.6-Profrontier | Xiaomi | 46.3 | $0.54 | 1810.HK |
| Grok 4.7 (High) | SpaceXAI | 46.3 | $3.00 | SPCX |
| Step 5 Preview | StepFun | 43.7 | $1.43 | — |
| Grok 4.6 (Medium) | SpaceXAI | 42.8 | $3.00 | SPCX |
| GLM-5.3-Flashfrontier | Z AI | 41.8 | $0.24 | — |
| Claude Haiku 5.5 (Xhigh)frontier | Anthropic | 41.2 | $0.20 | GOOGL · AMZN |
| Muse Spark 1.2 (Xhigh) | Meta | 39.6 | $2.00 | META |
| GPT-5.5 (Xhigh) | OpenAI | 38.4 | $11.25 | MSFT |
Most of the frontier is still private, and the listed exposure sits in the compute, the clouds and the backers underneath it. The exceptions are the labs owned outright by a listed company — Google, Meta, Alibaba and Xiaomi, and xAI, inside SpaceX since their 2026 merger.
Scores and prices: Artificial Analysis, read 14 October 2026 — artificialanalysis.ai. One source only; other leaderboards score differently and are not comparable. Proxy notes describe exposure, not ownership, and are not investment advice.
Leaderboard history
Insider25 nights of the board on file since 20 September 2026, and one more every night. Insider members see the whole run: who held #1, how today's top ten got there, what the first night's best costs now, the labs that keep winning and the listed companies behind them.
THE AI CAPEX TRACKER
FROM SEC FILINGS · 14 OCTOBER 2026Four balance sheets fund most of the boom.
Combined quarterly capex · big four
$165.05B+212% vs Q2 24
| Quarter | MSFT | GOOGL | AMZN | META | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 24 | $13.87B | $13.19B | $17.62B | $8.17B | $52.85B |
| Q3 24 | $14.92B | $13.06B | $22.62B | $8.26B | $58.86B |
| Q4 24 | $15.80B | $14.28B | $27.83B | $14.43B | $72.34B |
| Q1 25 | $16.75B | $17.20B | $25.02B | $12.94B | $71.91B |
| Q2 25 | $17.08B | $22.45B | $32.18B | $16.54B | $88.25B |
| Q3 25 | $19.39B | $23.95B | $35.09B | $18.83B | $97.26B |
| Q4 25 | $29.88B | $27.85B | $39.52B | $21.38B | $118.63B |
| Q1 26 | $30.88B | $35.67B | $44.20B | $19.00B | $129.75B |
| Q2 26 | $35.80B | $44.92B | $54.21B | $30.12B | $165.05B |
SEC filings (10-Q, 10-K) via the SEC XBRL API, read 14 October 2026 — every quarter traced to the filing that reported it (EDGAR). These are cash purchases of property and equipment and exclude finance leases, which Microsoft in particular uses heavily — their headline capex figure is higher than the one here. They are also total company capex, not AI capex: AI infrastructure drives the growth, but fulfilment centres and ordinary facilities are in these numbers too. The chart stops at Q2 2026, the last quarter all four have filed.
THE MONEY LOOP
Nvidia invests in the companies that buy its chips, and those chips come back as Nvidia's revenue.
Nvidia
NVDA · Supplier
OpenAI
Customer
Anthropic
Customer
Out of Nvidia
27 February 2026equityreported
Forbes, quoting OpenAI's own announcement ↗Part of a $110bn round at a $730bn pre-money valuation.
Back to Nvidia
Around the loop
COMPANY ANNOUNCEMENTS AND NAMED PRESS REPORTS · 1 AUGUST 2026
THE CHANNEL
AllFactsAI on YouTube is where it started: the AI gold rush, the chips, the money and the winners — explained for investors in minutes, not hours.
Latest from the channel
Microsoft (MSFT) and AI: its boss says the AI business passed an annual run rate of $37 billion — three months of sales stretched to a year, not a line the annual report carries. Nobody signs it. Here is how to read it.
Watch on YouTube→
Broadcom (AVGO) and AI: about $20 billion of last year's sales came from AI. The boss said it out loud. The accountants never wrote it down. Said, not signed — both true, same year.
Watch on YouTube→
Meta (META) and the $69.69 billion bill: revenue of $200.97 billion in the year to 31 December 2025, $69.69 billion on buildings, servers and chips, and no AI revenue line at all.
Watch on YouTube→
Vertiv (VRT) holds $15 billion of signed orders and will not tell you how much of it is AI. It makes the power and the cooling for AI data centres, not the chips and not the models.
Watch on YouTube→
AI data centre power, explained: by 2023 data centres already used 4.4% of all the electricity in America, and 2,200 GW of new capacity is stuck in the grid queue. Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Google.
Watch on YouTube→
$1 trillion. That is what the world is pouring into artificial intelligence in 2026, and almost nobody can show you the receipt.
Watch on YouTube→New videos every week
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