THE AI VALUE CHAIN
AI Exposure and Value Chain
Every layer of the AI build-out, from the power grid to the software that has to pay for it all.
Compute is now bounded by electricity and heat, not by demand for chips. Grid interconnects, turbines, transformers and liquid cooling decide how fast the boom can physically go.
What to watch
Price this layer →
Interconnection queues, power purchase deals, cooling attach rates.VRTVertivETNEatonGEVGE VernovaCEGConstellation Energy
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Semi Equipment
The machines that make the machines. Lithography and deposition tools gate every new fab, with lead times measured in years.
Equipment bookings, export-control changes, fab build announcements.
Foundry & Memory
Advanced logic and high-bandwidth memory are the scarcest inputs in the chain. Advanced packaging capacity has repeatedly been the binding constraint on accelerator supply.
Advanced packaging capacity, HBM sold-out announcements, node transitions.
Accelerators
GPUs and custom silicon convert capital into compute. This layer captures the largest share of AI spending — and sets the price of intelligence.
Data-center revenue, backlog, custom-silicon share shift, gross margin.
Networking & Optics
Training runs span tens of thousands of accelerators, so the fabric between them is as decisive as the silicon itself. Optics scale with cluster size, not with chip count.
Switch port shipments, optical transceiver upgrade cycles.
Data Centers
Where the compute physically lives. Pre-leasing has moved years ahead of construction, turning shells and land banks into strategic assets.
Pre-leasing rates, megawatts under construction, vacancy.
Hyperscalers
Five balance sheets fund most of the boom. Their capex guidance is the single most important number in the entire chain — it is everyone else's revenue.
Capex guidance revisions, cloud backlog, depreciation schedules.
Model Labs
Where capital becomes capability. Mostly private, so public-market exposure runs through their partners and investors — which is exactly where mispricing hides.
Benchmark leadership, cost per token, funding rounds, partner economics.
Applications
The layer that has to justify everything below it. If AI revenue does not show up here, the capex cycle above eventually resets.
Seat expansion, AI attach rates, pricing power, net revenue retention.
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