AI COMPANY FACT CARD
Nvidia
NVDA · Accelerators · FY2026, ended 25 January 2026
Revenue & free cash flow
Billions of dollars per fiscal year, with revenue growth under each. Levels, not growth rates: one year off a small base makes a growth chart unreadable.
From the filings
From exposureNvidia FY2026 Form 10-K, via SEC XBRL
- Revenue
- $215.94B
- Free cash flow
- $96.68B
- Cash & equivalents
- $10.61B
- Shares outstanding
- 24.3bn
Revenue by market
The company's own market split, latest fiscal year against the one before. Bars are scaled to the largest line, not to total revenue.
Revenue by region
Revenue by customer billing location. Nvidia discloses that 76% of the revenue billed to Taiwan is attributable to end customers based in the United States and Europe — billing location is not the end customer's location.
Nvidia FY2026 Form 10-K, revenue by region ↗Quality
Our readOur judgement, kept out of every measured figure.
Strengths — more is better
Risks — more is worse
Two direct customers each accounted for 22% and 14% of Compute & Networking revenue in FY2026 — up from 12% and 11% a year earlier. Nvidia names neither. That segment is most of the company, so this is close to company-wide concentration, though it is not reported as such.
The read
Our readThe purest expression of the trade, and the company with the least anywhere to hide if demand turns.
- Reports a segment figure at all — most of the chain does not.
- Free cash flow grew with revenue rather than lagging it.
- Capex intensity of 2.8% while selling to buyers spending ten times that.
- Data Center is not a pure AI line; it is an upper bound.
- Almost the whole business now rides on one end market.
- Cash and equivalents are small next to the market's expectations.
What the price assumes
Our readThe growth today's quote already implies, on our other assumptions.
compound free cash flow growth for five years, to justify today's price
- Terminal multiple
- 25×
- Discount rate
- 12%
Our valuation
Our readLow, base and high cases. A range, never a target.
Base case $165
The price sits above the whole band.
Free cash flow grew 59% in FY2026. All three cases assume that decelerates sharply, because five more years at anything close to the recent rate is not a forecast anyone can defend. Net cash is cash and equivalents less total debt; marketable securities are excluded rather than estimated, which makes the band conservative.