AI 公司实况卡
Nvidia
NVDA · Accelerators · FY2026, ended 25 January 2026
收入与自由现金流
按财年列出的金额，下方是收入增速。这里画的是绝对水平而非增速：某一年从很低的基数起跳，会让增速图完全无法阅读。
取自申报文件
取自敞口数据Nvidia FY2026 Form 10-K, via SEC XBRL
- 收入
- 2159 亿美元
- 自由现金流
- 967 亿美元
- 现金及等价物
- 106 亿美元
- 流通股本
- 24.3 十亿股
按市场划分的收入
公司自己的市场拆分，最新财年对比上一财年。柱状图按最大的一项缩放，而非按总收入缩放。
按地区划分的收入
Revenue by customer billing location. Nvidia discloses that 76% of the revenue billed to Taiwan is attributable to end customers based in the United States and Europe — billing location is not the end customer's location.
Nvidia FY2026 Form 10-K, revenue by region ↗质量
我们的判断我们的判断，绝不混入任何实测数字。
优势 — 越高越好
风险 — 越高越差
Two direct customers each accounted for 22% and 14% of Compute & Networking revenue in FY2026 — up from 12% and 11% a year earlier. Nvidia names neither. That segment is most of the company, so this is close to company-wide concentration, though it is not reported as such.
我们的解读
我们的判断The purest expression of the trade, and the company with the least anywhere to hide if demand turns.
- Reports a segment figure at all — most of the chain does not.
- Free cash flow grew with revenue rather than lagging it.
- Capex intensity of 2.8% while selling to buyers spending ten times that.
- Data Center is not a pure AI line; it is an upper bound.
- Almost the whole business now rides on one end market.
- Cash and equivalents are small next to the market's expectations.
当前股价隐含的假设
我们的判断在我们其余假设下，今天的股价已经隐含的增长速度。
未来五年自由现金流的年均复合增速，才能支撑今天的股价
- 终值倍数
- 25×
- 折现率
- 12%
我们的估值
我们的判断低、中、高三种情形。这是一个区间，绝不是目标价。
中性情形 165 美元
股价高于整个估值区间。
Free cash flow grew 59% in FY2026. All three cases assume that decelerates sharply, because five more years at anything close to the recent rate is not a forecast anyone can defend. Net cash is cash and equivalents less total debt; marketable securities are excluded rather than estimated, which makes the band conservative.