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Coherent's Datacenter & Communications segment, which supplies optical transceivers and photonics that link AI accelerators inside data centres, reported revenue for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 of $1.95 billion, up 79% year over year on continued AI datacenter demandCoherent, Form 10-Q · Nov 2026US private spending on data-centre construction in the first nine months of 2026, not seasonally adjusted, reached $54,208 million, up 49.1% from $36,350 million a year earlierUS Census Bureau, Construction Spending · Nov 2026In Epoch AI's ChatGPT usage explorer, built from the real message histories of a YouGov panel of US users, the median number of monthly messages per active user, counting prompts and replies, rose from 14 in January 2023 to 36 in December 2025Epoch AI, ChatGPT usage explorer · Nov 2026Power-equipment maker Eaton, which supplies data-centre and utility customers, said its Electrical Americas segment posted third-quarter 2026 sales of a record $4.2 billion, up 22% organically, at a 29.8% operating marginEaton, Form 8-K Ex. 99 · Nov 2026Coherent's Datacenter & Communications segment, which supplies optical transceivers and photonics that link AI accelerators inside data centres, reported revenue for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 of $1.95 billion, up 79% year over year on continued AI datacenter demandCoherent, Form 10-Q · Nov 2026US private spending on data-centre construction in the first nine months of 2026, not seasonally adjusted, reached $54,208 million, up 49.1% from $36,350 million a year earlierUS Census Bureau, Construction Spending · Nov 2026In Epoch AI's ChatGPT usage explorer, built from the real message histories of a YouGov panel of US users, the median number of monthly messages per active user, counting prompts and replies, rose from 14 in January 2023 to 36 in December 2025Epoch AI, ChatGPT usage explorer · Nov 2026Power-equipment maker Eaton, which supplies data-centre and utility customers, said its Electrical Americas segment posted third-quarter 2026 sales of a record $4.2 billion, up 22% organically, at a 29.8% operating marginEaton, Form 8-K Ex. 99 · Nov 2026
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Today's facts · 6 November 2026

  • Primarystraight from the source
  • Reportedvia a named outlet
  • Estimatea named analyst's projection
Hardware6/day by emailPrimary

Coherent's Datacenter & Communications segment, which supplies optical transceivers and photonics that link AI accelerators inside data centres, reported revenue for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 of $1.95 billion, up 79% year over year on continued AI datacenter demand

SourceCoherent, Form 10-Q·Nov 2026
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Edition of 6 November 2026

Coherent's Datacenter & Communications segment, which supplies optical transceivers and photonics that link AI accelerators inside data centres, reported revenue for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 of $1.95 billion, up 79% year over year on continued AI datacenter demand

Coherent's Datacenter & Communications segment, which supplies optical transceivers and photonics that link AI accelerators inside data centres, reported revenue for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 of $1.95 billion, up 79% year over year on continued AI datacenter demand

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THE AI VALUE CHAIN

Follow the money through the boom

Every layer of the AI build-out, from the power grid to the software that has to pay for it all.

  1. Compute is now bounded by electricity and heat, not by demand for chips. Grid interconnects, turbines, transformers and liquid cooling decide how fast the boom can physically go.

    What to watch
    Interconnection queues, power purchase deals, cooling attach rates.

    Price this layer →
    VRTVertivETNEatonGEVGE VernovaCEGConstellation Energy

  2. The machines that make the machines. Lithography and deposition tools gate every new fab, with lead times measured in years.

    What to watch
    Equipment bookings, export-control changes, fab build announcements.

    Price this layer →
    ASMLASMLAMATApplied MaterialsLRCXLam ResearchKLACKLA

  3. Advanced logic and high-bandwidth memory are the scarcest inputs in the chain. Advanced packaging capacity has repeatedly been the binding constraint on accelerator supply.

    What to watch
    Advanced packaging capacity, HBM sold-out announcements, node transitions.

    Price this layer →
    TSMTSMCSKHYSK HynixMUMicron005930.KSSamsung

  4. GPUs and custom silicon convert capital into compute. This layer captures the largest share of AI spending — and sets the price of intelligence.

    What to watch
    Data-center revenue, backlog, custom-silicon share shift, gross margin.

    Price this layer →
    NVDANvidiaAMDAMDAVGOBroadcomMRVLMarvell

  5. Training runs span tens of thousands of accelerators, so the fabric between them is as decisive as the silicon itself. Optics scale with cluster size, not with chip count.

    What to watch
    Switch port shipments, optical transceiver upgrade cycles.

    Price this layer →
    ANETArista NetworksCOHRCoherentCRDOCredoCIENCiena

  6. Where the compute physically lives. Pre-leasing has moved years ahead of construction, turning shells and land banks into strategic assets.

    What to watch
    Pre-leasing rates, megawatts under construction, vacancy.

    Price this layer →
    EQIXEquinixDLRDigital RealtyHUTHut 8CRWVCoreWeave

  7. Five balance sheets fund most of the boom. Their capex guidance is the single most important number in the entire chain — it is everyone else's revenue.

    What to watch
    Capex guidance revisions, cloud backlog, depreciation schedules.

    Price this layer →
    MSFTMicrosoftGOOGLAlphabetAMZNAmazonMETAMeta

  8. Where capital becomes capability. Mostly private, so public-market exposure runs through their partners and investors — which is exactly where mispricing hides.

    What to watch
    Benchmark leadership, cost per token, funding rounds, partner economics.

    Price this layer →
    private · MSFTOpenAIprivate · GOOGL/AMZNAnthropicGOOGLGoogle DeepMindSPCXxAI

  9. The layer that has to justify everything below it. If AI revenue does not show up here, the capex cycle above eventually resets.

    What to watch
    Seat expansion, AI attach rates, pricing power, net revenue retention.

    Price this layer →
    PLTRPalantirNOWServiceNowCRMSalesforceTSLATesla

AI EXPOSURE

How much AI is really in there?

89.7%

Nvidia discloses this share of revenue as AI.

27 companies scored. 7 disclose an AI share of revenue.

Figures refreshed 2 November 2026

The whole card, company by company

Nvidia

COMPANY AI EXPOSURE CARD

Nvidia

NVDA · Accelerators · FY2026, ended 25 January 2026

Sample card
71.1%
Gross margin
60.4%
Operating margin
44.8%
Cash flow margin
89.7%
AI share of revenue

Revenue & free cash flow

Billions of dollars per fiscal year, with revenue growth under each. Levels, not growth rates: one year off a small base makes a growth chart unreadable.

27.0
3.8
60.9
27.0
130.5
60.9
215.9
96.7
FY2023
baseline
FY2024
+126%
FY2025
+114%
FY2026
+65%
RevenueFree cash flow

From the filings

From exposure

Nvidia FY2026 Form 10-K, via SEC XBRL

Revenue
$215.94B
Free cash flow
$96.68B
Cash & equivalents
$10.61B
Shares outstanding
24.3bn
Open the filing ↗

Revenue by market

The company's own market split, latest fiscal year against the one before. Bars are scaled to the largest line, not to total revenue.

Data Center$193.7B+68%
Gaming$16.0B+41%
Professional Visualization$3.2B+70%
Automotive$2.4B+39%
OEM and Other$0.6B+59%

Revenue by region

United States69.3%
Taiwan19.6%
China (incl. Hong Kong)9.1%
Other2.0%

Revenue by customer billing location. Nvidia discloses that 76% of the revenue billed to Taiwan is attributable to end customers based in the United States and Europe — billing location is not the end customer's location.

Nvidia FY2026 Form 10-K, revenue by region ↗

Quality

Our read

Our judgement, kept out of every measured figure.

Strengths — more is better

Chain criticalityVery high
Moat durabilityHigh
Disclosure qualityHigh

Risks — more is worse

Customer concentrationVery high

Two direct customers each accounted for 22% and 14% of Compute & Networking revenue in FY2026 — up from 12% and 11% a year earlier. Nvidia names neither. That segment is most of the company, so this is close to company-wide concentration, though it is not reported as such.

The read

Our read

The purest expression of the trade, and the company with the least anywhere to hide if demand turns.

  • Reports a segment figure at all — most of the chain does not.
  • Free cash flow grew with revenue rather than lagging it.
  • Capex intensity of 2.8% while selling to buyers spending ten times that.
  • Data Center is not a pure AI line; it is an upper bound.
  • Almost the whole business now rides on one end market.
  • Cash and equivalents are small next to the market's expectations.

What the price assumes

Our read

The growth today's quote already implies, on our other assumptions.

No live quote available, so this is left blank rather than computed from a stale price.

Terminal multiple
25×
Discount rate
12%

Our valuation

Our read

Low, base and high cases. A range, never a target.

$130 – $208

Base case $165

$165
$130
$208

Free cash flow grew 59% in FY2026. All three cases assume that decelerates sharply, because five more years at anything close to the recent rate is not a forecast anyone can defend. Net cash is cash and equivalents less total debt; marketable securities are excluded rather than estimated, which makes the band conservative.

Sources on every figureallfacts.ai · Not financial advice
Open the Nvidia card ↗
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Alphabet

This week's deep dive: Alphabet.

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THE AI STOCK SCREENER

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THE MODEL LEADERBOARD

Smartest per dollar — and who owns it

Claude Opus 5.5 (Max, Default Fallback)

Anthropic

Intelligence59.1$ / 1M tokens$8.00How you get exposureListed stakeGOOGLAMZN
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THE AI CAPEX TRACKER

The number that moves everything

Five balance sheets fund most of the boom.

Combined quarterly capex · five companies

$230.42B+277% vs Q3 24

Q3 24Q4 24Q1 25Q2 25Q3 25Q4 25Q1 26Q2 26Q3 26

Oracle's fiscal year ends on 31 May, so a quarter is mapped to the calendar quarter it mostly overlaps: August to Q3, November to Q4, February to Q1 and May to Q2. Microsoft's year ends in June and is mapped the same way.

The full page adds the comparisons, the history since 2020, and a CSV of every filing.

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