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NBER asked 69 economists what the US economy would look like in 2050 if AI capabilities advance rapidly. Their median answer was 3.5% annual GDP growth, alongside a labour force participation rate falling from today's 62% to 55.0% by 2050, the level before women entered the workforce en masse

SourceNBER working paper 35046·April 2026

Verified 2026-08-16

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