Firms across the US, UK, Germany and Australia expect AI to lower their employment by about 0.7% over the next three years, with the steepest expected declines in the UK (-1.4%) and US (-1.2%) Firms expect AI to cut employment ~0.7% over the next 3 years
This finding from NBER Working Paper 34836 is based on surveys of firms in the US, UK, Germany, and Australia. Firms were asked how they expect AI to affect their number of employees over the next three years. The overall average expected reduction is about 0.7%, with the UK and US anticipating larger declines.
Verified 2026-09-17
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Firms expect only modest job losses from AI overall, with bigger effects in the UK and US.
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