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Reading stock-market moves of firms with large software-engineering payrolls, an NBER working paper estimates that from November 2022 to December 2025 AI raised the market's expected present value of software-engineering productivity by the equivalent of a permanent 32.6% increase, lifting expected GDP by 3.6%

SourceNBER Working Paper 35793·Nov 2022 to Dec 2025

Verified 2026-10-30

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Why it matters

Investors are already betting heavily on AI coding tools, which raises the stakes for how quickly those gains show up in company output and in demand for programmers.

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