Using generative AI to read over 120,000 corporate conference call transcripts, NBER researchers built an AI Economy Score that predicts GDP growth, employment and wages five or more quarters ahead
Manish Jha, Jialin Qian, Michael Weber, and Baozhong Yang used generative AI to extract managers’ economic expectations from over 120,000 corporate conference call transcripts. The resulting AI Economy Score predicts employment and wages five or more quarters ahead. This was published in NBER Working Paper 35949 in October 2026.
Verified 2026-11-03
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AI can turn what managers say on earnings calls into early signals on jobs and pay, giving investors a lead on the labour market before official data.
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- AI hiring intensity doesn't track the size of a country's AI industry. Stanford's 2026 AI Index, drawing on Lightcast's job-postings database across dozens of countries, found the 2025 leader for AI-skill job-posting share by a wide margin was Singapore, at 4.69% of all job postings — nearly double the 2.6% share in the United States
- Stanford's 2026 AI Index, citing Lightcast's job-postings database, found that even as employer demand shifted toward newer agentic-AI skills, mentions of generative AI skills specifically in US AI job postings still grew, from 2024 to 2025, by 111%
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