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ComputeEstimate
Epoch AI models the world's AI inference capacity, at fixed model size and context length, as growing 3.4× a year — but it puts token demand growth at around 10× a year, three times faster than supply
Verified 2026-08-08
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- The total computing power of the stock of AI chips is growing about 3.4× per year
- Traditional computing powers like Germany, Japan and France now play marginal roles in AI infrastructure. Epoch AI's tracking of global GPU cluster performance in May 2025 put China second at 15%, behind a United States hosting about three-quarters of the world's GPU cluster performance
- Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle together held, measured in H100-equivalents as of Q4 2025, an estimated 71% of the world's AI compute