Epoch AI models the world's AI inference capacity, at fixed model size and context length, as growing 3.4× a year — but it puts token demand growth at around 10× a year, three times faster than supply
Epoch AI models the world's AI inference capacity, at fixed model size and context length, as growing 3.4 times per year. This is based on an analysis of compute capacity and memory bandwidth growth. However, proxies for token demand, such as tokens processed by Google and all providers, suggest demand is growing around 10 times per year.
Verified 2026-08-08
Track with InsiderWhy it matters
Demand for running AI is growing faster than capacity to serve it, which supports continued data-centre building.
More on Compute
- Epoch AI tracks how much AI compute a dollar buys, measured in constant 2025 dollars across the chips companies actually purchased each quarter. Since 2023, AI chip price-performance has grown 49% a year, doubling every 1.7 years
- Amazon Web Services, the cloud unit that rents out computing power for AI, grew segment sales 39% year-over-year to $46.0 billion in the third quarter of 2026
- Applied Digital had signed long-term hyperscaler leases for 1,410 megawatts of AI data-centre capacity across five campuses as of May 31, 2026, worth approximately $36 billion in contracted revenue over the initial 15-year lease terms 1.41 gigawatts of AI data-centre capacity leased for $36 billion
The AI boom,with receipts.
6 sourced facts every weekday, plus the Weekly Brief, AI company deep dives and so much more. Free.
Free · No card · Unsubscribe anytime · See today's issue →
Join now and you start with 100 Receipts on The Receipts Ledger — your first step toward a free year of Insider or Pro. How it works →