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Asked what three years of AI had actually changed inside their own firms, nearly 6,000 senior executives across the US, UK, Germany and Australia mostly reported nothing: nine in ten saw no impact on employment or productivity

SourceNBER working paper 34836·February 2026

Verified 2026-08-08

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Most executives have not yet seen AI change jobs or output, a reminder that adoption and payoff are different things.

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