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Nearly 750 executives in the Duke/Federal Reserve CFO Survey expect AI to barely touch total headcount — aggregate employment down less than 0.4% in 2026. What shifts is the mix, over the next three years: routine clerical work down more than 2 percentage points of employment share

SourceNBER w34984, The CFO Survey·2026Q1 survey wave

Verified 2026-08-13

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