A Census Bureau working paper tracking college graduates by major since ChatGPT's 2022 debut found the most AI-exposed decile of majors saw their odds of landing a first job fall five percentage points, while their full-quarter starting earnings fell 13% -- a decline comparable to graduating into a large recession
A U.S. Census Bureau working paper (CES-WP-26-56) analyzed administrative records of college graduates to study the economic outcomes of majors with varying levels of AI exposure since ChatGPT's introduction in late 2022. The study found that the most AI-exposed decile of college majors experienced a five percentage point decline in their likelihood of initial employment and a 13% decrease in full-quarter initial earnings. This earnings decline is comparable to graduating into a large recession.
Verified 2026-09-27
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Young graduates in fields AI can do are finding the first rung of the job ladder harder to reach.
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- AI hiring intensity doesn't track the size of a country's AI industry. Stanford's 2026 AI Index, drawing on Lightcast's job-postings database across dozens of countries, found the 2025 leader for AI-skill job-posting share by a wide margin was Singapore, at 4.69% of all job postings — nearly double the 2.6% share in the United States
- Stanford's 2026 AI Index, citing Lightcast's job-postings database, found that even as employer demand shifted toward newer agentic-AI skills, mentions of generative AI skills specifically in US AI job postings still grew, from 2024 to 2025, by 111%
- The information sector — telecom, media, tech services — led US corporate AI hiring in 2025. Lightcast data cited in Stanford's 2026 AI Index found AI skills required in 13.2% of the sector's job postings, up from 7.8% in 2024
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