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THE DAILY RECEIPTS

The Daily Receipts

Edition of 19 October 2026

Below is the edition as it went out by email, followed by the receipts behind it, each linked to its source.

As sent by email

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The receipts in this edition

ModelsPrimary

After briefly nearly closing in 2024, the performance gap between the best closed-weight and open-weight AI models widened again on the Arena leaderboard. As of March 2026, Stanford's 2026 AI Index finds the top closed model leads the top open model by 3.3%, up from a 0.5% lead in August 2024

SourceStanford HAI (2026 AI Index)·March 2026 Arena snapshot
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EnergyPrimary

In its Annual Energy Outlook 2026, the US Energy Information Administration projects that electricity used by data-center servers alone will grow from an estimated 7% of commercial-sector electricity in 2025 to 22%–33% of commercial building electricity by 2050

SourceU.S. EIA (AEO2026)·AEO2026 / May 2026
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CapitalPrimary

Equinix, the world's largest data-center REIT, raised its full-year outlook after a strong second quarter and guided total 2026 capital expenditures — the spend that builds AI, cloud and interconnection capacity — to $5.0 billion to $6.0 billion in 2026 capex

SourceEquinix·Q2 2026 guidance
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Supply chainEstimate

AI server demand for HBM and high-capacity server DRAM has driven memory makers' sales so hard that TrendForce pegs total DRAM industry revenue in the second quarter of 2026 at nearly $154.73 billion, up 59.5% quarter-over-quarter

SourceTrendForce·Q2 2026
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HardwareEstimate

HBM supply is so tight that TrendForce says the memory feeding Nvidia's next-generation AI GPUs will keep getting pricier through 2027. The research firm's 29 September 2026 outlook now projects HBM's blended average selling price next year to rise, year-over-year, by 121%

SourceTrendForce·29 Sep 2026
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ComputeEstimate

Epoch AI's Frontier Data Centers Hub tracks AI data-centre construction using satellite imagery and public filings. It estimates xAI's Colossus 2, the most powerful AI data centre operating in 2026 at 1.4 million H100-equivalents, will be dwarfed once Meta's Hyperion and Microsoft's Fairwater are complete, when the two will together reach 5 million H100-equivalent GPUs combined, once Meta's Hyperion and Microsoft's Fairwater data centres are complete

SourceEpoch AI·Nov 2025
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The last close

Broad decline — 68 of 72 AI names lower — session 2026-10-16

Stock of the day

005930.KS Samsung Electronics, +2.6% today, at 161.31
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