EIA modelled what would happen if data-centre power demand grew faster than forecast. Its February 2026 baseline had US coal generation falling 9.3% between 2025 and 2027; in the higher-demand scenario, coal plants run on their existing spare capacity and the decline shrinks to a 5.0% fall in US coal generation instead of 9.3%
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) conducted an analysis in conjunction with its February 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This analysis explored the potential impact on U.S. coal generation if electricity demand from data centers grew faster than the baseline forecast. In this higher demand scenario, the projected decline in U.S. coal generation between 2025 and 2027 would be 5.0%, compared to the 9.3% decline forecast in the February STEO baseline.
Verified 2026-08-12
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Faster data-centre growth could keep older coal plants running longer, a cost of AI's power appetite.
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- American Electric Power, one of the largest US utilities, which counts hyperscalers and manufacturers among its new large customers, signed fresh load commitments in the third quarter of 2026 and now expects its contracted extra load to reach 84 GW by 2031 AEP signed 15 GW of new load commitments in a single quarter
- AI data centres worldwide reached a power capacity comparable to New York State at peak demand in 2025, which Stanford's AI Index puts at 29.6 gigawatts
- OpenAI does not disclose GPT-4o's resource footprint, so Stanford's 2026 AI Index Report turned to independent researchers' estimates of the water needed to cool the servers behind it — as much as 1.58 million kilolitres a year — more than 1.2 million people drink annually
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